PollyVote and Elections Forecasting
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PollyVote and Elections Forecasting

I.B.33. The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election (with A. Graefe, J.S. Armstrong, and R.J. Jones Jr.), in PS: Political Science and Politics, 49, 4, October 2016, pp. 687-690.

I.B.32. Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote‌ (with A. Graefe, J.S. Armstrong, and R.J. Jones, Jr.).  Forthcoming in Foresight. The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.

I.B.31. The PollyVote's Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election‌. (with A. Graefe, J.S. Armstrong, and R.J. Jones, Jr.), Foresight. The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Winter 2012, pp. 13-14.

I.B.30. ‌Combining Forecasts: An Application To Election Forecasts‌. (with A. Graefe, J.S. Armstrong, and R.J. Jones, Jr.). An earlier version was prepared for presentation at the 2011 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Seattle, WA, Sept. 1-4. 

I.B.29. Predicting the Results of the 2010 Midterm Elections: Judgment, Econometrics, and Prediction Markets.‌Foresight. The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Spring 2011, pp. 41-44.

I.B.28. Presidential Job Approval: Barack Obama and Predecessors Compared‌. Paper prepared for presentation at the 2011 Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, January 6.

I.B.27. A Post-Mortem on Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010?‌. Published in PS:Political Science and Politics, 44,1, January 2011.

I.B.26. Predicting the Results of the 2010 Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives: Judgement, Econometrics, and Markets. ‌Prepared for presentation at the Bucharest Dialogue conference in Bucharest, Romania, November 19-21, 2010.

I.B.25. Expert Judgment in Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation‌. (Alfred G. Cuzán and Randall J. Jones Jr.) Prepared for presentation at the Bucharest Dialogue conference in Bucharest, Romania, November 19-21, 2010.

I.B.24. Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? A Second Look Over the Horizon‌. Revised September 25, 2010.

I.B.23. Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010?‌ This is a "revised and extended" version of a power point slide show originally presented at the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., September 4, 2010.

I.B.22. ‌Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010?‌ Presented at the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., September 4, 2010.

I.B.21. Presidential Job Approval: Barack Obama and Predecessors Compared.‌ Presented at the March 27th, 2010 Meeting of the Florida Political Science Association, Jackonville.

I.B.20. Combining Forecasts: An application to U.S. Presidential Elections.‌ (Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall J. Jones, Jr, and Alfred G. Cuzán.). March 16, 2010.

I.B.19. Combining Forecasts for the U.S. Presidential Election: The PollyVote.‌ (Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall J. Jones, Jr, Alfred G. Cuzán.). October 30, 2009.

I.B.18. Forecasting the 2008 Election with the Pollyvote.‌ (Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall J. Jones, Jr.) Published in Foresight, Issue No. 12, Spring 2009.

I.B.17. Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election‌ (with Randal J. Jones, Jr.) Published in Foresight, Issue No. 12, Spring 2009.

I.B.16. Bush the Younger: Another Hoover?‌ October 2, 2008.

I.B.15. Regression Model Forecasts of the U.S. Presidential Election‌ (with Randall Jones, Jr.) Published in Foresight, Issue no. 11, Fall 2008.

I.B.14. ‌Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review‌ (with Randall J. Jones, Jr.) Published in Foresight, Issue no. 10, Summer 2008.

I.B.13. Forecasting Elections using Expert Surveys: An Application to U.S. Presidential Elections‌ (with Randall Jones and J. Scott Armstrong).  Presented at the 2007 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, August 30th.

I.B.12. ‌The 2006 House Elections: Forecasts and Results‌. Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association, Extension of Remarks, January 2007, Vol. 30, No.1.

I.B.11. ‌Will the Republicans Retain Control in 2006?‌ (with Charles M. Bundrick).  Presented at the 2006 meeting of the Northeastern Political Science Association, Boston, November.

I.B.10. A Retrospective on Forecasting Midterm Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives‌ (with Randall Jones).  Published in Foresight.  The Journal of Applied Forecasting, Fall 2006.

I.B.9. ‌ (with J. Scott Armstrong as first author).  Published in Foresight.  The Journal of Applied Forecasting, February 2006.

I.B.8. ‌ (with J. Scott Armstrong and Randall J. Jones, Jr.).  Presented at the 25th Symposium on Forecasting, San Antonio, June 14, 2005.

I.B.7. How We Computed the Pollyvote‌ (with J. Scott Armstrong and Randall J. Jones, Jr.).  Published in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, vol. 1, no. 1, 2005.

I.B.6. Appropriators versus Expropriators: The Political Economy of Water in the West‌.  Published in Water Rights: Scarce Resource Allocation, Bureaucracy, and the Environment, Cambridge: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1983.

I.B.5. The Political Economy of Ports in the United States and Great Britain.‌  Published in Coastal Zone Management Journal, vol. 11, no. 3, 1983.

I.B.4. Towards a Property Oriented System for Beach Management‌.  1983.

I.B.3. The Appropriation of Shifting Sands: A Case for Transferring Institutions From the Desert to the Coast‌ (with David Fischer and Gregory Stone), Oceans, 1982, 926-930.

I.B.2. CETA in New Mexico: An Evaluation of the Balance of State Prime Sponsor‌.  Published in The Idaho Journal of Politics, vol. III, no. 1, June 1980.

I.B.1. A Critique of Collectivist Water Resources Planning‌.  Published in The Western Political Quarterly, vol. XXXII, no. 3, September 1979.

INDEX METHODS FOR FORECASTING: AN APPLICATION TO THE AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
by J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred G. Cuzan

THE CAMPBELL COLLECTION OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FORECASTS, 1984-2016. A Review. Alfred G. Cuzán 8/21/2020

Alexis de Tocqueville
*The Old Regime and the French Revolution. Democracy
in America.*

Friedrich A. Hayek
*The Road to Serfdom.*